2024-2025 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated Tue, Apr 29, 2025, 12:40 AM EDT.

Tue, Apr 29, 2025 4 games

7:00 PM**
83*
OTT
35%
TOR
65%
7:30 PM
67
NJD
36%
CAR
64%
9:30 PM
75
MIN
36%
VEG
64%
10:00 PM
92
EDM
44%
LAK
56%
* Quality is an approximation of how entertaining the game expected to be. Subjectively, games with quality above 70 are generally high quality. 90 and above are don't miss. Poop emojis are reserved for games of quality less than 5 and carry their own entertainment value.
** Game times in Eastern.

Mon, Apr 28, 2025 2 games

Final
90
TBL
46%
2
FLA
54%
4
Final
98
COL
47%
2
DAL
53%
6

Sun, Apr 27, 2025 4 games

Final
97
WPG
52%
1
STL
48%
5
Final
67
CAR
PK
5
NJD
PK
2
Final
60
WSH
51%
5
MTL
49%
2
Final/OT
92
LAK
45%
3
EDM
55%
4

Sat, Apr 26, 2025 4 games

Final
90
TBL
43%
5
FLA
57%
1
Final/OT
75
VEG
51%
4
MIN
49%
3
Final/OT
83
TOR
55%
3
OTT
45%
4
Final
98
DAL
42%
0
COL
58%
4

Fri, Apr 25, 2025 3 games

Final
60
WSH
53%
3
MTL
47%
6
Final
92
LAK
47%
4
EDM
53%
7
Final/OT2
67
CAR
51%
2
NJD
49%
3

Thu, Apr 24, 2025 4 games

Final
97
WPG
54%
2
STL
46%
7
Final
75
VEG
53%
2
MIN
47%
5
Final/OT
83
TOR
54%
3
OTT
46%
2
Final
90
FLA
43%
2
TBL
57%
0

Wed, Apr 23, 2025 3 games

Final
60
MTL
36%
1
WSH
64%
3
Final
92
EDM
43%
2
LAK
57%
6
Final/OT
98
DAL
41%
2
COL
59%
1

Tue, Apr 22, 2025 4 games

Final/OT
83
OTT
35%
2
TOR
65%
3
Final
67
NJD
38%
1
CAR
62%
3
Final
74
MIN
33%
5
VEG
67%
2
Final
90
FLA
40%
6
TBL
60%
2

Mon, Apr 21, 2025 4 games

Final/OT
60
MTL
37%
2
WSH
63%
3
Final
97
STL
35%
1
WPG
65%
2
Final/OT
98
COL
48%
3
DAL
52%
4
Final
92
EDM
44%
5
LAK
56%
6

Sun, Apr 20, 2025 3 games

Final
67
NJD
40%
1
CAR
60%
4
Final
83
OTT
37%
2
TOR
63%
6
Final
74
MIN
34%
2
VEG
66%
4

Sat, Apr 19, 2025 2 games

Final
97
STL
41%
3
WPG
59%
5
Final
98
COL
52%
5
DAL
48%
1

Thu, Apr 17, 2025 7 games

Final/OT
75
DET
34%
3
TOR
66%
4
Final
53
WSH
57%
2
PIT
43%
5
Final
71
CAR
48%
5
OTT
52%
7
Final
78
TBL
55%
0
NYR
45%
4
Final
38
NYI
41%
1
CBJ
59%
6
Final
26
PHI
38%
4
BUF
62%
5
Final
70
CGY
32%
5
LAK
68%
1

Wed, Apr 16, 2025 6 games

Final/OT
61
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
24%
1
WPG
76%
2
Final
61
CAR
54%
2
MTL
46%
4
Final
54
DET
41%
5
NJD
59%
2
Final
55
DAL
63%
1
NSH
37%
5
Final
74
VEG
53%
4
VAN
47%
1
Final
12
EDM
74%
3
SJS
26%
0

Tue, Apr 15, 2025 10 games

Final
92
FLA
41%
1
TBL
59%
5
Final
29
CBJ
49%
3
PHI
51%
0
Final/OT
20
CHI
26%
4
OTT
74%
3
Final
68
TOR
56%
4
BUF
44%
0
Final/OT
44
NJD
51%
5
BOS
49%
4
Final
64
UTA
40%
1
STL
60%
6
Final
57
WSH
54%
3
NYI
46%
1
Final/OT
32
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
36%
2
MIN
64%
3
Final/SO
68
VEG
56%
4
CGY
44%
5
Final
66
LAK
57%
6
SEA
43%
5

Mon, Apr 14, 2025 6 games

Final/SO
8
CHI
30%
4
MTL
70%
3
Final
70
NYR
36%
5
FLA
64%
3
Final
72
DAL
57%
4
DET
43%
6
Final
34
UTA
51%
7
NSH
49%
3
Final/OT
💩
SJS
23%
1
VAN
77%
2
Final
93
LAK
43%
5
EDM
57%
0

Sun, Apr 13, 2025 9 games

Final/OT
41
PHI
34%
3
OTT
66%
4
Final
47
NYI
37%
1
NJD
63%
0
Final
26
BOS
43%
4
PIT
57%
1
Final
90
TOR
45%
4
CAR
55%
1
Final
60
CBJ
34%
4
WSH
66%
1
Final
70
BUF
33%
4
TBL
67%
7
Final
100
EDM
37%
4
WPG
63%
1
Final
💩
SJS
26%
2
CGY
74%
5
Final
56
COL
62%
4
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
38%
2

Sat, Apr 12, 2025 11 games

Final/SO
25
NYI
48%
3
PHI
52%
4
Final
69
NYR
37%
3
CAR
63%
7
Final
96
COL
47%
4
LAK
53%
5
Final/SO
67
BUF
35%
2
FLA
65%
3
Final/OT
66
MTL
34%
0
TOR
66%
1
Final/SO
43
WPG
74%
5
CHI
26%
4
Final
60
WSH
58%
0
CBJ
42%
7
Final
76
UTA
31%
5
DAL
69%
3
Final
56
NSH
29%
3
VEG
71%
5
Final/OT
51
MIN
42%
3
VAN
58%
2
Final/SO
55
STL
53%
3
SEA
47%
4

Fri, Apr 11, 2025 5 games

Final/OT
69
DET
32%
4
TBL
68%
3
Final
54
MTL
41%
2
OTT
59%
5
Final
45
PIT
35%
4
NJD
65%
2
Final
14
SJS
19%
2
EDM
81%
4
Final
43
MIN
47%
2
CGY
53%
4

Thu, Apr 10, 2025 10 games

Final
64
DET
35%
1
FLA
65%
4
Final
38
BUF
49%
2
CBJ
51%
3
Final
💩
CHI
32%
5
BOS
68%
2
Final/SO
89
CAR
43%
4
WSH
57%
5
Final
44
NYR
46%
9
NYI
54%
2
Final
100
WPG
44%
4
DAL
56%
0
Final/SO
32
NSH
37%
4
UTA
63%
3
Final
78
VAN
32%
4
COL
68%
1
Final
64
SEA
32%
1
VEG
68%
2
Final
52
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
30%
1
LAK
70%
6

Wed, Apr 9, 2025 5 games

Final/OT
95
TOR
41%
4
TBL
59%
3
Final
32
PHI
35%
8
NYR
65%
5
Final/OT
💩
SJS
24%
7
MIN
76%
8
Final
82
STL
42%
3
EDM
58%
4
Final/OT
27
CGY
49%
3
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
51%
4

Tue, Apr 8, 2025 10 games

Final
💩
CHI
34%
0
PIT
66%
5
Final
47
BOS
33%
7
NJD
67%
2
Final
45
DET
44%
1
MTL
56%
4
Final
86
TOR
46%
1
FLA
54%
3
Final
44
OTT
53%
2
CBJ
47%
5
Final
67
CAR
54%
0
BUF
46%
3
Final/OT
28
NYI
PK
6
NSH
PK
7
Final/OT
80
VAN
30%
6
DAL
70%
5
Final
42
SEA
43%
1
UTA
57%
7
Final/SO
100
VEG
42%
2
COL
58%
3

Mon, Apr 7, 2025 5 games

Final
77
TBL
53%
5
NYR
47%
1
Final
96
STL
37%
1
WPG
63%
3
Final
💩
CGY
62%
3
SJS
38%
2
Final
63
SEA
33%
2
LAK
67%
1
Final
50
EDM
61%
2
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
39%
3

Sun, Apr 6, 2025 8 games

Final
65
WSH
57%
1
NYI
43%
4
Final/OT
82
DAL
60%
2
MIN
40%
3
Final
44
CBJ
36%
0
OTT
64%
4
Final
64
FLA
53%
1
DET
47%
2
Final
💩
PIT
56%
1
CHI
44%
3
Final
33
BOS
41%
3
BUF
59%
6
Final
29
MTL
PK
2
NSH
PK
1
Final
70
VEG
54%
3
VAN
46%
2

Sat, Apr 5, 2025 13 games

Final
65
NYR
42%
0
NJD
58%
4
Final
73
FLA
51%
0
OTT
49%
3
Final
70
PIT
24%
5
DAL
76%
3
Final
31
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
38%
2
VAN
62%
6
Final
90
EDM
45%
0
LAK
55%
3
Final
77
WPG
61%
1
UTA
39%
4
Final
57
CBJ
32%
0
TOR
68%
5
Final
93
COL
51%
4
STL
49%
5
Final
26
PHI
38%
2
MTL
62%
3
Final/SO
69
TBL
58%
2
BUF
42%
3
Final
57
CAR
61%
1
BOS
39%
5
Final
💩
SEA
61%
5
SJS
39%
1
Final/OT
64
VEG
56%
3
CGY
44%
2

Fri, Apr 4, 2025 3 games

Final
29
CHI
21%
3
WSH
79%
5
Final
70
CAR
57%
3
DET
43%
5
Final
42
MIN
48%
1
NYI
52%
3

Thu, Apr 3, 2025 9 games

Final
79
TBL
54%
1
OTT
46%
2
Final
30
BOS
41%
1
MTL
59%
4
Final
67
COL
60%
7
CBJ
40%
3
Final/OT
48
PIT
32%
4
STL
68%
5
Final
68
NSH
24%
1
DAL
76%
5
Final
62
LAK
53%
4
UTA
47%
2
Final
28
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
41%
1
CGY
59%
4
Final
100
WPG
48%
4
VEG
52%
0
Final
19
EDM
72%
3
SJS
28%
2

Wed, Apr 2, 2025 5 games

Final/OT
56
MIN
42%
4
NYR
58%
5
Final
97
WSH
44%
1
CAR
56%
5
Final
88
FLA
45%
2
TOR
55%
3
Final/SO
33
COL
72%
3
CHI
28%
2
Final
39
SEA
39%
5
VAN
61%
0

Tue, Apr 1, 2025 10 games

Final
47
BUF
38%
5
OTT
62%
2
Final/OT
63
FLA
57%
2
MTL
43%
3
Final
26
NSH
43%
4
CBJ
57%
8
Final
59
WSH
60%
4
BOS
40%
3
Final
67
TBL
58%
4
NYI
42%
1
Final/OT
58
DET
37%
1
STL
63%
2
Final
39
CGY
44%
1
UTA
56%
3
Final
94
EDM
42%
3
VEG
58%
2
Final/SO
💩
SJS
31%
3
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
69%
4
Final
98
WPG
52%
1
LAK
48%
4

Mon, Mar 31, 2025 4 games

Final
17
NSH
47%
1
PHI
53%
2
Final/SO
61
MIN
41%
2
NJD
59%
3
Final/SO
69
CGY
29%
3
COL
71%
2
Final
73
DAL
64%
3
SEA
36%
1

Sun, Mar 30, 2025 8 games

Final
63
MTL
30%
4
FLA
70%
2
Final
63
BUF
29%
8
WSH
71%
5
Final
83
VAN
31%
1
WPG
69%
3
Final
💩
UTA
57%
5
CHI
43%
2
Final/OT
41
OTT
54%
0
PIT
46%
1
Final
66
NYI
32%
4
CAR
68%
6
Final
51
TOR
58%
3
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
42%
2
Final
15
SJS
22%
1
LAK
78%
8

What is this?

This is an elo forecast based on FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications outlined below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Current Version

The current version of the projections builds on FiveThirtyEight's model, biasing parameters to the salary-cap era. We tune home-ice advantage from 50 to 42, and increase the K-factor from 6 to 8. We also add a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo, rather than relying solely on a regressed season-ending elo, which short-cuts learning any off-season movement.

How does it work?

Each team is given an elo score, which is effectively their strength relative to other teams. At the start of the eason, this score is a blend of their previous season's ending elo, regressed to the mean, and an implied elo derived from the Vegas season point total projections. Before each game, we compute the probability of each team winning based on their elo ratings and other factors like home ice advantage. After each game is played, we update the teams' scores based based on who won, by how much, who was originally expected to win, etc.

To simulate the season, we go game by game, randomly picking a winner of each game weighted on their pre-game probabilities. We then update their elo rating as described above as if they really played the game, and continue to the next game. We do this for the whole season (including playoffs) tens of thousands of times, recording how each team did in each full season simulation.

We then average their results across simulated seasons to get the probability of making the playoffs or winning the cup, etc., which are presented in the table above. For example, if the Edmonton Oilers won the cup 6,000 times in 50,000 simulations, they would show a 12% chance of winning the cup in the table above. If the Leafs won the cup 5,000 times, the table would show 10%, but we'd all know the true probability is still 0.

Is it accurate?

These projections have been shown to be exceptionally well-calibrated over the years when 538 was doing it, and last year when I did it. So across a season, they're quite reliable. When you factor in the simplicity of the modeling, the ROI on effort to results is quite frankly astounding. (As an aside, other projections websites go to mind-bending lengths incuding things like puck locations and player tracking, and achieve only marginally better results.)

However, there are shortfalls to the system, especially at the game level. It doesn't account for day-to-day changes like injuries, trades, suspensions, coaching changes, etc. When these things happen, it can take a few games for the elo score to capture the impact, and so any given game could be poorly calibrated in the short term. One way to think about this is if the Vegas money line is significantly different from the elo projection, it's not a value find but an indication that there's a significant factor the model doesn't know about.

How do I use this to gamble?

You don't. I'm just some random guy on the internet (see below) and this could go away at any time. It's made for entertainment and hockey obsession purposes only.

Why do this?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts last season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.