2024-2025 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated Sun, May 18, 2025, 10:44 PM EDT.

Mon, May 19, 2025 1 game

9:30 PM**
100*
DAL
42%
WPG
58%
* Quality is an approximation of how entertaining the game expected to be. Subjectively, games with quality above 70 are generally high quality. 90 and above are don't miss. Poop emojis are reserved for games of quality less than 5 and carry their own entertainment value.
** Game times in Eastern.

Sun, May 18, 2025 1 game

Final
97
FLA
44%
6
TOR
56%
1

Sat, May 17, 2025 1 game

Final/OT
100
WPG
47%
1
DAL
53%
2

Fri, May 16, 2025 1 game

Final
97
TOR
43%
2
FLA
57%
0

Thu, May 15, 2025 2 games

Final
85
CAR
47%
3
WSH
53%
1
Final
100
DAL
43%
0
WPG
57%
4

Wed, May 14, 2025 2 games

Final
97
FLA
43%
6
TOR
57%
1
Final/OT
97
EDM
47%
1
VEG
53%
0

Tue, May 13, 2025 1 game

Final
100
WPG
46%
1
DAL
54%
3

Mon, May 12, 2025 2 games

Final
85
WSH
42%
2
CAR
58%
5
Final
97
VEG
42%
0
EDM
58%
3

Sun, May 11, 2025 2 games

Final
100
WPG
48%
2
DAL
52%
5
Final
97
TOR
47%
0
FLA
53%
2

Sat, May 10, 2025 2 games

Final
85
WSH
44%
0
CAR
56%
4
Final
97
VEG
41%
4
EDM
59%
3

Fri, May 9, 2025 2 games

Final/OT
97
TOR
47%
4
FLA
53%
5
Final
100
DAL
42%
0
WPG
58%
4

Thu, May 8, 2025 2 games

Final
85
CAR
45%
1
WSH
55%
3
Final/OT
97
EDM
46%
5
VEG
54%
4

Wed, May 7, 2025 2 games

Final
97
FLA
41%
3
TOR
59%
4
Final
100
DAL
40%
3
WPG
60%
2

Tue, May 6, 2025 2 games

Final/OT
85
CAR
PK
2
WSH
PK
1
Final
97
EDM
44%
4
VEG
56%
2

Mon, May 5, 2025 1 game

Final
97
FLA
48%
4
TOR
52%
5

Sun, May 4, 2025 1 game

Final/OT2
97
STL
39%
3
WPG
61%
4

Sat, May 3, 2025 1 game

Final
98
COL
47%
2
DAL
53%
4

Fri, May 2, 2025 1 game

Final
97
WPG
51%
2
STL
49%
5

Thu, May 1, 2025 4 games

Final
83
TOR
51%
4
OTT
49%
2
Final
75
VEG
52%
3
MIN
48%
2
Final
98
DAL
42%
4
COL
58%
7
Final
92
LAK
43%
4
EDM
57%
6

Wed, Apr 30, 2025 3 games

Final
60
MTL
35%
1
WSH
65%
4
Final
90
FLA
44%
6
TBL
56%
3
Final
97
STL
38%
3
WPG
62%
5

Tue, Apr 29, 2025 4 games

Final
83
OTT
35%
4
TOR
65%
0
Final/OT2
67
NJD
36%
4
CAR
64%
5
Final/OT
75
MIN
36%
2
VEG
64%
3
Final
92
EDM
44%
3
LAK
56%
1

Mon, Apr 28, 2025 2 games

Final
90
TBL
46%
2
FLA
54%
4
Final
98
COL
47%
2
DAL
53%
6

Sun, Apr 27, 2025 4 games

Final
97
WPG
52%
1
STL
48%
5
Final
67
CAR
PK
5
NJD
PK
2
Final
60
WSH
51%
5
MTL
49%
2
Final/OT
92
LAK
45%
3
EDM
55%
4

Sat, Apr 26, 2025 4 games

Final
90
TBL
43%
5
FLA
57%
1
Final/OT
75
VEG
51%
4
MIN
49%
3
Final/OT
83
TOR
55%
3
OTT
45%
4
Final
100
DAL
42%
0
COL
58%
4

Fri, Apr 25, 2025 3 games

Final
97
WSH
44%
3
MTL
56%
6
Final
100
LAK
47%
4
EDM
53%
7
Final/OT2
97
CAR
43%
2
NJD
57%
3

Thu, Apr 24, 2025 4 games

Final
100
WPG
43%
2
STL
57%
7
Final
85
VEG
47%
2
MIN
53%
5
Final/OT
97
TOR
47%
3
OTT
53%
2
Final
97
FLA
43%
2
TBL
57%
0

Wed, Apr 23, 2025 3 games

Final
100
MTL
46%
1
WSH
54%
3
Final
97
EDM
42%
2
LAK
58%
6
Final/OT
85
DAL
42%
2
COL
58%
1

Tue, Apr 22, 2025 4 games

Final/OT
97
OTT
47%
2
TOR
53%
3
Final
100
NJD
48%
1
CAR
52%
3
Final
97
MIN
41%
5
VEG
59%
2
Final
85
FLA
44%
6
TBL
56%
2

Mon, Apr 21, 2025 4 games

Final/OT
97
MTL
47%
2
WSH
53%
3
Final
100
STL
42%
1
WPG
58%
2
Final/OT
85
COL
45%
3
DAL
55%
4
Final
97
EDM
46%
5
LAK
54%
6

Sun, Apr 20, 2025 3 games

Final
97
NJD
41%
1
CAR
59%
4
Final
100
OTT
40%
2
TOR
60%
6
Final
97
MIN
44%
2
VEG
56%
4

What is this?

This is an elo forecast based on FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications outlined below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Current Version

The current version of the projections builds on FiveThirtyEight's model, biasing parameters to the salary-cap era. We tune home-ice advantage from 50 to 42, and increase the K-factor from 6 to 8. We also add a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo, rather than relying solely on a regressed season-ending elo, which short-cuts learning any off-season movement.

How does it work?

Each team is given an elo score, which is effectively their strength relative to other teams. At the start of the eason, this score is a blend of their previous season's ending elo, regressed to the mean, and an implied elo derived from the Vegas season point total projections. Before each game, we compute the probability of each team winning based on their elo ratings and other factors like home ice advantage. After each game is played, we update the teams' scores based based on who won, by how much, who was originally expected to win, etc.

To simulate the season, we go game by game, randomly picking a winner of each game weighted on their pre-game probabilities. We then update their elo rating as described above as if they really played the game, and continue to the next game. We do this for the whole season (including playoffs) tens of thousands of times, recording how each team did in each full season simulation.

We then average their results across simulated seasons to get the probability of making the playoffs or winning the cup, etc., which are presented in the table above. For example, if the Edmonton Oilers won the cup 6,000 times in 50,000 simulations, they would show a 12% chance of winning the cup in the table above. If the Leafs won the cup 5,000 times, the table would show 10%, but we'd all know the true probability is still 0.

Is it accurate?

These projections have been shown to be exceptionally well-calibrated over the years when 538 was doing it, and last year when I did it. So across a season, they're quite reliable. When you factor in the simplicity of the modeling, the ROI on effort to results is quite frankly astounding. (As an aside, other projections websites go to mind-bending lengths incuding things like puck locations and player tracking, and achieve only marginally better results.)

However, there are shortfalls to the system, especially at the game level. It doesn't account for day-to-day changes like injuries, trades, suspensions, coaching changes, etc. When these things happen, it can take a few games for the elo score to capture the impact, and so any given game could be poorly calibrated in the short term. One way to think about this is if the Vegas money line is significantly different from the elo projection, it's not a value find but an indication that there's a significant factor the model doesn't know about.

How do I use this to gamble?

You don't. I'm just some random guy on the internet (see below) and this could go away at any time. It's made for entertainment and hockey obsession purposes only.

Why do this?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts last season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.