2024-2025 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated Tue, Apr 29, 2025, 12:40 AM EDT.

Welcome to our 2024-25 NHL elo projections!

We have made it to the PLAYOFFS! How exciting. See below for our playoff matchups and predictions. We will be updating multiple times a day until someone hoists the cup. Good luck to all, except the Toronto Maple Leafs.

This website is inspired by 538's NHL Elo ratings, which are sadly no longer available on their site. We provide season-long and game-level projections, updated daily. See below the table for how it works.

Round 1 Series Win Probabilities

36%

64%

Series tied 2-2

27%

73%

DAL leads 3-2

33%

67%

Series tied 2-2

46%

54%

Series tied 2-2

95%

TOR leads 3-1

84%

16%

FLA leads 3-1

95%

WSH leads 3-1

94%

CAR leads 3-1

Show all columns?

							Based on 50,000 simulations

1	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 55-26-5	East	1582	+32	+8	108	✓	95%	56%	35%	18.5%
2	Winnipeg JetsWPG 58-24-4	West	1591	+61	-8	116	✓	64%	38%	24%	14.9%
3	Dallas StarsDAL 53-28-6	West	1566	+3	+1	106	✓	73%	33%	18%	9.1%
4	Washington CapitalsWSH 54-23-9	East	1546	+55	-2	111	✓	95%	49%	21%	8.8%
5	Vegas Golden KnightsVEG 52-24-10	West	1564	+30	-3	110	✓	67%	34%	16%	8.4%
6	Florida PanthersFLA 50-32-4	East	1557	-8	+6	98	✓	84%	34%	18%	8.0%
7	Carolina HurricanesCAR 50-30-6	East	1551	-7	+6	99	✓	94%	47%	20%	8.0%
8	Los Angeles KingsLAK 50-26-10	West	1563	+41	-10	105	✓	54%	30%	14%	7.0%
9	Edmonton OilersEDM 50-31-5	West	1561	-19	+3	101	✓	46%	25%	11%	5.7%
10	Colorado AvalancheCOL 51-30-6	West	1577	+19	-1	102	✓	27%	14%	8%	4.5%
11	St. Louis BluesSTL 46-32-8	West	1550	+62	+15	96	✓	36%	15%	7%	3.4%
12	Tampa Bay LightningTBL 48-30-8	East	1561	+26	-19	102	✓	16%	7%	4%	2.1%
13	Minnesota WildMIN 47-31-8	West	1509	-6	+11	97	✓	33%	10%	3%	1.1%
14	Ottawa SenatorsOTT 46-31-9	East	1516	+18	-2	97	✓	5%	2%	<1%	0.3%
15	New Jersey DevilsNJD 43-36-7	East	1497	-33	-19	91	✓	6%	2%	<1%	0.2%
16	Montreal CanadiensMTL 41-33-12	East	1482	+43	+1	91	✓	5%	2%	<1%	0.1%
17	New York RangersNYR 39-36-7	East	1513	-42	+10	85	—	—	—	—	—
18	Utah Hockey ClubUTA 38-31-13	West	1499	+16	+11	89	—	—	—	—	—
19	Detroit Red WingsDET 39-35-8	East	1498	+1	+12	86	—	—	—	—	—
20	Vancouver CanucksVAN 38-30-14	West	1497	-43	+6	90	—	—	—	—	—
21	Calgary FlamesCGY 41-27-14	West	1497	+26	+18	96	—	—	—	—	—
22	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 40-33-9	East	1496	+85	+34	89	—	—	—	—	—
23	Buffalo SabresBUF 36-39-7	East	1482	-16	-13	79	—	—	—	—	—
24	Seattle KrakenSEA 35-41-6	West	1474	-9	-3	76	—	—	—	—	—
25	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 34-36-12	East	1465	-39	+6	80	—	—	—	—	—
26	New York IslandersNYI 35-35-12	East	1463	-43	-19	82	—	—	—	—	—
27	Boston BruinsBOS 33-39-10	East	1460	-84	+1	76	—	—	—	—	—
28	Nashville PredatorsNSH 30-44-8	West	1450	-84	+7	68	—	—	—	—	—
29	Philadelphia FlyersPHI 33-39-10	East	1438	-36	+1	76	—	—	—	—	—
30	Anaheim DucksANA 35-37-10	West	1438	+26	-8	80	—	—	—	—	—
31	Chicago BlackhawksCHI 25-46-11	West	1392	-27	+13	61	—	—	—	—	—
32	San Jose SharksSJS 20-50-12	West	1333	-48	-10	52	—	—	—	—	—

As of:

What is this?

This is an elo forecast based on FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications outlined below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Current Version

The current version of the projections builds on FiveThirtyEight's model, biasing parameters to the salary-cap era. We tune home-ice advantage from 50 to 42, and increase the K-factor from 6 to 8. We also add a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo, rather than relying solely on a regressed season-ending elo, which short-cuts learning any off-season movement.

How does it work?

Each team is given an elo score, which is effectively their strength relative to other teams. At the start of the eason, this score is a blend of their previous season's ending elo, regressed to the mean, and an implied elo derived from the Vegas season point total projections. Before each game, we compute the probability of each team winning based on their elo ratings and other factors like home ice advantage. After each game is played, we update the teams' scores based based on who won, by how much, who was originally expected to win, etc.

To simulate the season, we go game by game, randomly picking a winner of each game weighted on their pre-game probabilities. We then update their elo rating as described above as if they really played the game, and continue to the next game. We do this for the whole season (including playoffs) tens of thousands of times, recording how each team did in each full season simulation.

We then average their results across simulated seasons to get the probability of making the playoffs or winning the cup, etc., which are presented in the table above. For example, if the Edmonton Oilers won the cup 6,000 times in 50,000 simulations, they would show a 12% chance of winning the cup in the table above. If the Leafs won the cup 5,000 times, the table would show 10%, but we'd all know the true probability is still 0.

Is it accurate?

These projections have been shown to be exceptionally well-calibrated over the years when 538 was doing it, and last year when I did it. So across a season, they're quite reliable. When you factor in the simplicity of the modeling, the ROI on effort to results is quite frankly astounding. (As an aside, other projections websites go to mind-bending lengths incuding things like puck locations and player tracking, and achieve only marginally better results.)

However, there are shortfalls to the system, especially at the game level. It doesn't account for day-to-day changes like injuries, trades, suspensions, coaching changes, etc. When these things happen, it can take a few games for the elo score to capture the impact, and so any given game could be poorly calibrated in the short term. One way to think about this is if the Vegas money line is significantly different from the elo projection, it's not a value find but an indication that there's a significant factor the model doesn't know about.

How do I use this to gamble?

You don't. I'm just some random guy on the internet (see below) and this could go away at any time. It's made for entertainment and hockey obsession purposes only.

Why do this?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts last season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.