2023-24 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated March 03, 2024 at 21:20:09 PST.

This is an elo forecast inspired by FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications as detailed in the version history below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Mon, Mar 4, 2024 6 games

2024-03-04
FLA
48%
NYR
52%
Quality
100
2024-03-04
BOS
42%
TOR
58%
Quality
92
2024-03-04
SEA
39%
CGY
61%
Quality
60
2024-03-04
STL
44%
PHI
56%
Quality
45
2024-03-04
VEG
61%
CBJ
39%
Quality
33
2024-03-04
CHI
18%
COL
82%
Quality
20
* Quality is the harmonic mean of the teams' pre-game Elo ratings, normalized to a 0-100 scale. We use harmonic mean instead of arithmetic mean because it sounds cooler - it's pretty much the same thing in our case. Poop emojis are reserved for games of quality less than 5.

Sun, Mar 3, 2024 6 games

2024-03-03 - Final
PIT
35%
1
EDM
65%
6
Quality
81
2024-03-03 - Final
WPG
52%
5
BUF
48%
2
Quality
74
2024-03-03 - Final
NJD
41%
1
LAK
59%
5
Quality
64
2024-03-03 - Final
VAN
64%
2
ANA
36%
1
Quality
32
2024-03-03 - Final
ARI
38%
5
WSH
62%
2
Quality
21
2024-03-03 - Final
SJS
24%
3
MIN
76%
4
Quality
💩

Sat, Mar 2, 2024 13 games

2024-03-02 - Final/SO
NYR
46%
3
TOR
54%
4
Quality
99
2024-03-02 - Final
WPG
40%
5
CAR
60%
3
Quality
98
2024-03-02 - Final
FLA
55%
4
DET
45%
0
Quality
92
2024-03-02 - Final
COL
52%
1
NSH
48%
5
Quality
83
2024-03-02 - Final
EDM
55%
2
SEA
45%
1
Quality
76
2024-03-02 - Final
PIT
42%
3
CGY
58%
4
Quality
65
2024-03-02 - Final
VEG
50%
2
BUF
50%
7
Quality
64
2024-03-02 - Final
BOS
56%
1
NYI
44%
5
Quality
64
2024-03-02 - Final
MIN
48%
1
STL
52%
3
Quality
52
2024-03-02 - Final
OTT
42%
2
PHI
58%
4
Quality
39
2024-03-02 - Final/SO
MTL
29%
3
TBL
71%
4
Quality
28
2024-03-02 - Final/SO
SJS
19%
2
DAL
81%
3
Quality
20
2024-03-02 - Final
CBJ
52%
5
CHI
48%
2
Quality
💩

Fri, Mar 1, 2024 3 games

2024-03-01 - Final
PHI
47%
2
WSH
53%
5
Quality
39
2024-03-01 - Final
NJD
60%
3
ANA
40%
4
Quality
21
2024-03-01 - Final
ARI
36%
5
OTT
64%
3
Quality
21

Thu, Feb 29, 2024 12 games

2024-02-29 - Final
WPG
45%
1
DAL
55%
4
Quality
91
2024-02-29 - Final
VEG
42%
4
BOS
58%
5
Quality
85
2024-02-29 - Final
LAK
40%
5
VAN
60%
1
Quality
75
2024-02-29 - Final
MIN
45%
1
NSH
55%
6
Quality
64
2024-02-29 - Final/OT
BUF
39%
3
TBL
61%
2
Quality
59
2024-02-29 - Final
PIT
48%
0
SEA
52%
2
Quality
57
2024-02-29 - Final
NYI
35%
5
DET
65%
3
Quality
52
2024-02-29 - Final/SO
MTL
21%
3
FLA
79%
4
Quality
50
2024-02-29 - Final
ARI
26%
2
TOR
74%
4
Quality
47
2024-02-29 - Final
CAR
68%
4
CBJ
32%
2
Quality
47
2024-02-29 - Final
COL
73%
5
CHI
27%
0
Quality
25
2024-02-29 - Final
ANA
49%
6
SJS
51%
4
Quality
💩

Wed, Feb 28, 2024 2 games

2024-02-28 - Final/OT
STL
32%
2
EDM
68%
3
Quality
71
2024-02-28 - Final
CBJ
23%
1
NYR
77%
4
Quality
46

Tue, Feb 27, 2024 12 games

2024-02-27 - Final
DAL
43%
1
COL
57%
5
Quality
94
2024-02-27 - Final
VEG
38%
6
TOR
62%
2
Quality
87
2024-02-27 - Final
CAR
52%
3
MIN
48%
2
Quality
85
2024-02-27 - Final
BUF
31%
2
FLA
69%
3
Quality
81
2024-02-27 - Final/OT
PIT
39%
4
VAN
61%
3
Quality
74
2024-02-27 - Final
LAK
45%
2
CGY
55%
4
Quality
68
2024-02-27 - Final
STL
34%
2
WPG
66%
4
Quality
68
2024-02-27 - Final
TBL
51%
2
PHI
49%
6
Quality
57
2024-02-27 - Final
WSH
37%
3
DET
63%
8
Quality
52
2024-02-27 - Final
OTT
41%
1
NSH
59%
4
Quality
50
2024-02-27 - Final
NJD
64%
7
SJS
36%
2
Quality
8
2024-02-27 - Final
ARI
48%
2
MTL
52%
4
Quality
💩

Mon, Feb 26, 2024 4 games

2024-02-26 - Final
LAK
38%
2
EDM
62%
4
Quality
85
2024-02-26 - Final/SO
BOS
54%
3
SEA
46%
4
Quality
69
2024-02-26 - Final/OT
NYI
30%
3
DAL
70%
2
Quality
61
2024-02-26 - Final
OTT
47%
3
WSH
53%
6
Quality
39

Sun, Feb 25, 2024 7 games

2024-02-25 - Final/SO
CAR
57%
2
BUF
43%
3
Quality
75
2024-02-25 - Final
TBL
46%
4
NJD
54%
1
Quality
65
2024-02-25 - Final
PHI
40%
6