2024-2025 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated Tue, Jan 14, 2025, 11:56 PM EST.

Wed, Jan 15, 2025 2 games

6:00 PM**
60*
CAR
57%
BUF
43%
8:30 PM
91
EDM
51%
MIN
49%
* Quality is an approximation of how entertaining the game expected to be. Subjectively, games with quality above 70 are generally high quality. 90 and above are don't miss. Poop emojis are reserved for games of quality less than 5 and carry their own entertainment value.
** Game times in Eastern.

Tue, Jan 14, 2025 13 games

Final
44
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
27%
0
WSH
73%
3
Final
92
DAL
49%
4
TOR
51%
1
Final
27
SEA
44%
4
PIT
56%
2
Final
💩
SJS
28%
6
DET
72%
3
Final/SO
26
PHI
45%
2
CBJ
55%
3
Final
71
TBL
52%
2
BOS
48%
6
Final
48
OTT
47%
2
NYI
53%
0
Final/SO
86
FLA
44%
2
NJD
56%
1
Final
75
VAN
35%
1
WPG
65%
6
Final
40
CGY
42%
1
STL
58%
2
Final
65
VEG
56%
3
NSH
44%
5
Final
35
MTL
42%
5
UTA
58%
3
Final/OT
75
NYR
38%
2
COL
62%
3

Mon, Jan 13, 2025 3 games

Final
56
FLA
58%
3
PHI
42%
4
Final
11
CGY
54%
5
CHI
46%
2
Final
97
LAK
40%
0
EDM
60%
1

Sun, Jan 12, 2025 5 games

Final
35
SEA
42%
2
DET
58%
6
Final
58
TBL
56%
5
PIT
44%
2
Final
78
DAL
56%
2
OTT
44%
3
Final/OT
44
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
25%
3
CAR
75%
2
Final
84
MIN
41%
1
VEG
59%
4

Sat, Jan 11, 2025 15 games

Final/OT
70
BOS
35%
4
FLA
65%
3
Final
42
OTT
46%
5
PIT
54%
0
Final
30
SEA
41%
6
BUF
59%
2
Final
93
COL
44%
0
WPG
56%
3
Final
68
VAN
36%
3
TOR
64%
0
Final
34
CBJ
38%
2
STL
62%
1
Final
12
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
40%
0
PHI
60%
6
Final/OT
85
TBL
45%
2
NJD
55%
3
Final/SO
66
DAL
60%
2
MTL
40%
1
Final
45
EDM
69%
4
CHI
31%
3
Final
64
WSH
54%
4
NSH
46%
1
Final
41
NYI
44%
2
UTA
56%
1
Final
75
NYR
37%
2
VEG
63%
1
Final
19
MIN
67%
3
SJS
33%
1
Final
59
LAK
57%
1
CGY
43%
2

Fri, Jan 10, 2025 5 games

Final/OT
58
MTL
32%
3
WSH
68%
2
Final
15
CHI
34%
3
DET
66%
5
Final
72
VAN
35%
0
CAR
65%
2
Final/OT
91
LAK
42%
2
WPG
58%
1
Final
💩
SJS
30%
1
UTA
70%
2

Thu, Jan 9, 2025 10 games

Final
69
BOS
37%
1
TBL
63%
4
Final
69
EDM
61%
3
PIT
39%
5
Final
61
DAL
61%
4
PHI
39%
1
Final
41
BUF
39%
4
OTT
61%
0
Final/OT
70
NJD
51%
2
NYR
49%
3
Final
23
SEA
47%
2
CBJ
53%
6
Final
90
TOR
44%
3
CAR
56%
6
Final
24
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
36%
2
STL
64%
6
Final
84
COL
46%
6
MIN
54%
1
Final
65
NYI
30%
4
VEG
70%
0

Wed, Jan 8, 2025 3 games

Final/OT
70
VAN
37%
1
WSH
63%
2
Final
37
COL
67%
1
CHI
33%
3
Final
65
FLA
54%
4
UTA
46%
1

Tue, Jan 7, 2025 9 games

Final/SO
24
CBJ
39%
4
PIT
61%
3
Final/OT
77
DAL
53%
5
NYR
47%
4
Final/OT
46
OTT
48%
2
DET
52%
3
Final
81
EDM
55%
4
BOS
45%
0
Final
56
TOR
58%
3
PHI
42%
2
Final
68
NSH
34%
2
WPG
66%
5
Final
62
STL
37%
4
MIN
63%
6
Final/OT
18
CGY
48%
3
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
52%
2
Final
31
VEG
71%
4
SJS
29%
2

Mon, Jan 6, 2025 4 games

Final/SO
58
WSH
58%
3
BUF
42%
4
Final/OT
41
VAN
PK
4
MTL
PK
5
Final
90
FLA
44%
1
COL
56%
3
Final
56
NJD
56%
3
SEA
44%
2

Sun, Jan 5, 2025 5 games

Final
22
NYR
58%
6
CHI
42%
2
Final/OT
61
PIT
33%
3
CAR
67%
4
Final/OT
45
NYI
38%
5
BOS
62%
4
Final/OT
56
PHI
31%
2
TOR
69%
3
Final
44
TBL
63%
1
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
37%
4

Sat, Jan 4, 2025 12 games

Final
63
DET
31%
4
WPG
69%
2
Final
24
NJD
69%
2
SJS
31%
3
Final
73
BOS
39%
4
TOR
61%
6
Final/SO
57
MTL
30%
2
COL
70%
1
Final
37
NSH
46%
4
CGY
54%
1
Final
30
STL
53%
4
CBJ
47%
6
Final
83
MIN
40%
4
CAR
60%
0
Final/OT
70
UTA
33%
2
DAL
67%
3
Final
88
TBL
45%
1
LAK
55%
2
Final
62
BUF
30%
1
VEG
70%
3
Final
67
EDM
59%
4
SEA
41%
2
Final
72
NYR
38%
4
WSH
62%
7

Fri, Jan 3, 2025 5 games

Final/SO
63
PIT
33%
2
FLA
67%
3
Final
52
OTT
47%
0
STL
53%
4
Final
7
MTL
53%
2
CHI
47%
4
Final
48
NSH
38%
3
VAN
62%
0
Final
50
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
25%
2
EDM
75%
3

Thu, Jan 2, 2025 12 games

Final/SO
80
MIN
40%
4
WSH
60%
3
Final
60
BOS
46%
1
NYR
54%
2
Final
92
CAR
43%
3
FLA
57%
1
Final
21
DET
48%
5
CBJ
52%
4
Final
57
TOR
55%
2
NYI
45%
1
Final/OT
48
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
24%
4
WPG
76%
3
Final
77
OTT
37%
2
DAL
63%
4
Final/OT
60
BUF
31%
5
COL
69%
6
Final
39
UTA
45%
5
CGY
55%
3
Final
60
PHI
31%
2
VEG
69%
5
Final/SO
47
VAN
49%
4
SEA
51%
3
Final
26
TBL
71%
1
SJS
29%
2

Wed, Jan 1, 2025 1 game

Final
86
NJD
46%
0
LAK
54%
3

Tue, Dec 31, 2024 13 games

Final
57
NYI
34%
1
TOR
66%
3
Final
59
MTL
29%
3
VEG
71%
2
Final
16
STL
55%
6
CHI
45%
2
Final
💩
PHI
56%
4
SJS
44%
0
Final
53
NSH
37%
3
MIN
63%
5
Final
34
PIT
47%
2
DET
53%
4
Final
62
BUF
32%
2
DAL
68%
4
Final
96
WPG
48%
2
COL
52%
5
Final/SO
50
CAR
62%
3
CBJ
38%
4
Final
43
NJD
65%
2
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
35%
3
Final
71
UTA
32%
1
EDM
68%
4
Final
47
VAN
51%
1
CGY
49%
3
Final
77
BOS
40%
1
WSH
60%
3

Mon, Dec 30, 2024 3 games

Final
74
NYR
37%
3
FLA
63%
5
Final
70
NSH
31%
0
WPG
69%
3
Final
40
UTA
48%
2
SEA
52%
5

Sun, Dec 29, 2024 9 games

Final
37
BUF
40%
4
STL
60%
2
Final
45
EDM
68%
3
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
32%
5
Final
58
MTL
27%
5
TBL
73%
2
Final
56
WSH
59%
2
DET
41%
4
Final
37
NYI
43%
2
PIT
57%
3
Final
40
DAL
65%
5
CHI
35%
1
Final
64
CGY
32%
0
VEG
68%
3
Final
65
OTT
41%
3
MIN
59%
1
Final
53
PHI
33%
4
LAK
67%
5

Sat, Dec 28, 2024 11 games

Final
52
MTL
26%
4
FLA
74%
0
Final/OT
46
SEA
36%
5
VAN
64%
4
Final/OT
92
EDM
PK
3
LAK
PK
4
Final
9
PHI
PK
3
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
PK
1
Final
79
OTT
35%
2
WPG
65%
4
Final
86
WSH
44%
5
TOR
56%
2
Final
79
NYR
36%
2
TBL
64%
6
Final
93
NJD
46%
2
CAR
54%
5
Final
38
CBJ
33%
0
BOS
67%
4
Final
37
PIT
46%
3
NYI
54%
6
Final
💩
CGY
57%
3
SJS
43%
1

Fri, Dec 27, 2024 8 games

Final
93
CAR
44%
2
NJD
56%
4
Final
53
TOR
56%
5
DET
44%
2
Final
37
BOS
58%
2
CBJ
42%
6
Final
12
CHI
38%
2
BUF
62%
6
Final
43
NSH
44%
4
STL
56%
7
Final/OT
81
MIN
39%
3
DAL
61%
2
Final
68
COL
51%
4
UTA
49%
1
Final
30
VEG
69%
6
SJS
31%
3

Mon, Dec 23, 2024 13 games

Final
77
NYR
38%
0
NJD
62%
5
Final
91
WPG
46%
5
TOR
54%
2
Final
33
PHI
41%
3
PIT
59%
7
Final
98
TBL
42%
4
FLA
58%
0
Final
34
STL
45%
4
DET
55%
0
Final
9
MTL
45%
4
CBJ
55%
5
Final
78
WSH
PK
1
BOS
PK
4
Final
29
BUF
40%
7
NYI
60%
1
Final
67
CAR
57%
2
NSH
43%
5
Final
33
CHI
30%
3
MIN
70%
4
Final
18
SJS
26%
3
VAN
74%
4
Final
72
DAL
52%
3
UTA
48%
2
Final
42
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
25%
1
VEG
75%
3

Sun, Dec 22, 2024 6 games

Final
84
LAK
42%
1
WSH
58%
3
Final/SO
24
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
31%
5
UTA
69%
4
Final
98
FLA
45%
4
TBL
55%
2
Final
82
OTT
35%
1
EDM
65%
3
Final
56
SEA
33%
2
COL
67%
5
Final
80
CAR
PK
3
NYR
PK
1

Sat, Dec 21, 2024 11 games

Final/OT
59
LAK
54%
2
NSH
46%
3
Final/OT
36
SJS
20%
2
EDM
80%
3
Final
16
CHI
38%
4
CGY
62%
6
Final
82
MIN
40%
0
WPG
60%
5
Final
62
NYI
32%
6
TOR
68%
3
Final/OT
16
CBJ
40%
4
PHI
60%
5
Final
64
PIT
34%
0
NJD
66%
3
Final
21
DET
PK
1
MTL
PK
5
Final
42
BUF
35%
1
BOS
65%
3
Final
60
SEA
33%
2
VEG
67%
6
Final/OT
63
OTT
42%
5
VAN
58%
4

Fri, Dec 20, 2024 7 games

Final
90
CAR
47%
1
WSH
53%
3
Final/OT
67
STL
31%
1
FLA
69%
2
Final
21
MTL
37%
4
DET
63%
3
Final
56
TOR
58%
6
BUF
42%
3
Final
64
UTA
40%
2
MIN
60%
1
Final
78
NYR
37%
3
DAL
63%
1
Final
36
COL
62%
4
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
38%
2

Thu, Dec 19, 2024 9 games

Final
67
STL
33%
1
TBL
67%
3
Final
45
NJD
63%
2
CBJ
37%
4
Final
54
LAK
55%
7
PHI
45%
3
Final/OT
39
PIT
44%
5
NSH
56%
4
Final
18
SEA
53%
1
CHI
47%
3
Final/OT
83
BOS
36%
2
EDM
64%
3
Final/OT
44
OTT
49%
3
CGY
51%
2
Final
77
VAN
40%
1
VEG
60%
3
Final
25
COL
65%
4
SJS
35%
2

Wed, Dec 18, 2024 5 games

Final
34
PHI
43%
4
DET
57%
6
Final
92
TOR
41%
5
DAL
59%
3
Final
87
FLA
47%
6
MIN
53%
1
Final/OT
62
VAN
48%
2
UTA
52%
3
Final
41
WPG
66%
2
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
34%
3

Tue, Dec 17, 2024 10 games

Final
47
CBJ
26%
3
TBL
74%
5
Final/OT
58
LAK
54%
2
PIT
46%
3
Final
15
BUF
51%
1
MTL
49%
6
Final
64
NYI
32%
0
CAR
68%
4
Final
66
NJD
54%
4
STL
46%
1
Final
51
NYR
51%
0
NSH
49%
2
Final
39
WSH
64%
2
CHI
36%
3
Final/OT
48
BOS
PK
4
CGY
PK
3
Final
47
OTT
46%
3
SEA
54%
0
Final
33
WPG
68%
4
SJS
32%
3

Mon, Dec 16, 2024 3 games

Final
93
WSH
43%
1
DAL
57%
3
Final
98
FLA
41%
6
EDM
59%
5
Final
74
COL
47%
1
VAN
53%
3

Sun, Dec 15, 2024 5 games

Final
15
NYI
54%
3
CHI
46%
5
Final
57
BUF
33%
3
TOR
67%
5
Final
47
CBJ
27%
1
CAR
73%
4
Final
55
NYR
PK
2
STL
PK
3
Final
83
VEG
44%
3
MIN
56%
2

Sat, Dec 14, 2024 15 games

Final
75
LAK
45%
5
NYR
55%
1
Final
38
CHI
26%
1
NJD
74%
4
Final
57
PHI
34%
1
MIN
66%
4
Final
94
VEG
41%
3
EDM
59%
6
Final
60
BUF
33%
2
WSH
67%
4
Final
45
MTL
26%
2
WPG
74%
4
Final/OT
45
PIT
41%
2
OTT
59%
3
Final
58
TOR
56%
2
DET
44%
4
Final/OT
💩
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
40%
4
CBJ
60%
3
Final/OT
68
STL
33%
1
DAL
67%
2
Final
58
NSH
36%
2
COL
64%
5
Final
65
BOS
40%
5
VAN
60%
1
Final
14
UTA
59%
4
SJS
41%
3
Final
67
TBL
54%
5
SEA
46%
1
Final
61
FLA
59%
0
CGY
41%
3

What is this?

This is an elo forecast based on FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications outlined below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Current Version

The current version of the projections builds on FiveThirtyEight's model, biasing parameters to the salary-cap era. We tune home-ice advantage from 50 to 42, and increase the K-factor from 6 to 8. We also add a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo, rather than relying solely on a regressed season-ending elo, which short-cuts learning any off-season movement.

How does it work?

Each team is given an elo score, which is effectively their strength relative to other teams. At the start of the eason, this score is a blend of their previous season's ending elo, regressed to the mean, and an implied elo derived from the Vegas season point total projections. Before each game, we compute the probability of each team winning based on their elo ratings and other factors like home ice advantage. After each game is played, we update the teams' scores based based on who won, by how much, who was originally expected to win, etc.

To simulate the season, we go game by game, randomly picking a winner of each game weighted on their pre-game probabilities. We then update their elo rating as described above as if they really played the game, and continue to the next game. We do this for the whole season (including playoffs) tens of thousands of times, recording how each team did in each full season simulation.

We then average their results across simulated seasons to get the probability of making the playoffs or winning the cup, etc., which are presented in the table above. For example, if the Edmonton Oilers won the cup 6,000 times in 50,000 simulations, they would show a 12% chance of winning the cup in the table above. If the Leafs won the cup 5,000 times, the table would show 10%, but we'd all know the true probability is still 0.

Is it accurate?

These projections have been shown to be exceptionally well-calibrated over the years when 538 was doing it, and last year when I did it. So across a season, they're quite reliable. When you factor in the simplicity of the modeling, the ROI on effort to results is quite frankly astounding. (As an aside, other projections websites go to mind-bending lengths incuding things like puck locations and player tracking, and achieve only marginally better results.)

However, there are shortfalls to the system, especially at the game level. It doesn't account for day-to-day changes like injuries, trades, suspensions, coaching changes, etc. When these things happen, it can take a few games for the elo score to capture the impact, and so any given game could be poorly calibrated in the short term. One way to think about this is if the Vegas money line is significantly different from the elo projection, it's not a value find but an indication that there's a significant factor the model doesn't know about.

How do I use this to gamble?

You don't. I'm just some random guy on the internet (see below) and this could go away at any time. It's made for entertainment and hockey obsession purposes only.

Why do this?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts last season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.