2023-24 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated June 18, 2024 at 19:56:38 PDT.

Tue, Jun 18, 2024 1 game

2024-06-18 - Final
EDM
40%
5
FLA
60%
3
Quality
100
* Quality is the harmonic mean of the teams' pre-game Elo ratings, normalized to a 0-100 scale. We use harmonic mean instead of arithmetic mean because it sounds cooler - it's pretty much the same thing in our case. Poop emojis are reserved for games of quality less than 5.

Sat, Jun 15, 2024 1 game

2024-06-15 - Final
FLA
51%
1
EDM
49%
8
Quality
100

Thu, Jun 13, 2024 1 game

2024-06-13 - Final
FLA
50%
4
EDM
50%
3
Quality
100

Mon, Jun 10, 2024 1 game

2024-06-10 - Final
EDM
40%
1
FLA
60%
4
Quality
100

Sat, Jun 8, 2024 1 game

2024-06-08 - Final
EDM
41%
0
FLA
59%
3
Quality
100

Sun, Jun 2, 2024 1 game

2024-06-02 - Final
DAL
45%
1
EDM
55%
2
Quality
100

Sat, Jun 1, 2024 1 game

2024-06-01 - Final
NYR
42%
1
FLA
58%
2
Quality
100

Fri, May 31, 2024 1 game

2024-05-31 - Final
EDM
42%
3
DAL
58%
1
Quality
100

Thu, May 30, 2024 1 game

2024-05-30 - Final
FLA
45%
3
NYR
55%
2
Quality
100

Wed, May 29, 2024 1 game

2024-05-29 - Final
DAL
48%
2
EDM
52%
5
Quality
100

Tue, May 28, 2024 1 game

2024-05-28 - Final/OT
NYR
42%
2
FLA
58%
3
Quality
100

Mon, May 27, 2024 1 game

2024-05-27 - Final
DAL
46%
5
EDM
54%
3
Quality
100

Sun, May 26, 2024 1 game

2024-05-26 - Final/OT
NYR
40%
5
FLA
60%
4
Quality
100

Sat, May 25, 2024 1 game

2024-05-25 - Final
EDM
51%
1
DAL
49%
3
Quality
100

Fri, May 24, 2024 1 game

2024-05-24 - Final/OT
FLA
50%
1
NYR
50%
2
Quality
100

Thu, May 23, 2024 1 game

2024-05-23 - Final/OT2
EDM
40%
3
DAL
60%
2
Quality
100

Wed, May 22, 2024 1 game

2024-05-22 - Final
FLA
41%
3
NYR
59%
0
Quality
100

Mon, May 20, 2024 1 game

2024-05-20 - Final
EDM
49%
3
VAN
51%
2
Quality
95

Sat, May 18, 2024 1 game

2024-05-18 - Final
VAN
41%
1
EDM
59%
5
Quality
95

Fri, May 17, 2024 2 games

2024-05-17 - Final/OT2
DAL
46%
2
COL
54%
1
Quality
100
2024-05-17 - Final
FLA
50%
2
BOS
50%
1
Quality
100

Thu, May 16, 2024 2 games

2024-05-16 - Final
NYR
42%
5
CAR
58%
3
Quality
100
2024-05-16 - Final
EDM
48%
2
VAN
52%
3
Quality
95

Wed, May 15, 2024 1 game

2024-05-15 - Final
COL
40%
5
DAL
60%
3
Quality
100

Tue, May 14, 2024 2 games

2024-05-14 - Final
BOS
37%
2
FLA
63%
1
Quality
100
2024-05-14 - Final
VAN
41%
2
EDM
59%
3
Quality
95

Mon, May 13, 2024 2 games

2024-05-13 - Final
DAL
45%
5
COL
55%
1
Quality
100
2024-05-13 - Final
CAR
44%
4
NYR
56%
1
Quality
100

Sun, May 12, 2024 2 games

2024-05-12 - Final
FLA
50%
3
BOS
50%
2
Quality
100
2024-05-12 - Final
VAN
40%
4
EDM
60%
3
Quality
95

Sat, May 11, 2024 2 games

2024-05-11 - Final
DAL
45%
4
COL
55%
1
Quality
100
2024-05-11 - Final
NYR
42%
3
CAR
58%
4
Quality
100

Fri, May 10, 2024 2 games

2024-05-10 - Final
FLA
42%
6
BOS
58%
2
Quality
100
2024-05-10 - Final/OT
EDM
45%
4
VAN
55%
3
Quality
100

Thu, May 9, 2024 2 games

2024-05-09 - Final
COL
48%
3
DAL
52%
5
Quality
100
2024-05-09 - Final/OT
NYR
42%
3
CAR
58%
2
Quality
100

Wed, May 8, 2024 2 games

2024-05-08 - Final
EDM
46%
4
VAN
54%
5
Quality
100
2024-05-08 - Final
BOS
40%
1
FLA
60%
6
Quality
100

Tue, May 7, 2024 2 games

2024-05-07 - Final/OT
COL
51%
4
DAL
49%
3
Quality
100
2024-05-07 - Final/OT2
CAR
50%
3
NYR
50%
4
Quality
100

Version History

v3.0 - current

Re-ran backtesting of model parameters with a bias towards the salary-cap era. This resulted in changes to several parameters, including increasing the K-factor from 6 to 8 and reducing home ice advantage from 50 to 42, which were found to improve predictive performance of the model at the game level. This in should improve the quality of the forecast, which is done via game-level monte carlo simulation.

v2.0

I added a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo. This differs from v1.0, which uses only last season's ending elo, with a small regression back to the mean. In this change, I mapped Vegas totals to elo ratings using a simple linear regression model, then I blended the v1 rating with the Vegas projected rating, at 65% Vegas-biased elo and 35% v1 elo. The most notable change is Boston going from first with a 20% cup chance, down to 4th at only 9%.

v1.0 - FiveThirtyEight's

This was an exact replica of FiveThirtyEight's NHL forecast.

What is this?

This is an elo forecast inspired by FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications as detailed in the version history above. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Why do it?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts this season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.