2023-24 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated April 27, 2024 at 15:00:37 PDT.

The playoffs have arrived!

We now have NHL Playoff Matchup Probabilities updating at least once a day. I hope you've found this data as useful as I have throughout the years and continue to enjoy it until someone hoists the cup! If there's something you'd like to see for next season, drop me a note on Twitter (X).

Data Integrity WRT to the Leafs

I'm aware of a bug in the model that that gives the Maple Leafs of Toronto a greater than 0% chance of winning the cup. Don't fret, the issue should sort itself out in the first 4-7 games.

Round 1 Series Win Probabilities

99%

NYR leads 3-0

97%

CAR leads 3-1

97%

FLA leads 3-0

28%

72%

BOS leads 2-1

29%

71%

VAN leads 2-1

20%

80%

EDM leads 2-1

71%

29%

VEG leads 2-0

72%

28%

COL leads 2-1

						Based on 50,000 simulations

1	Carolina HurricanesCAR 55-23-8	Metro	1612	+35	111	✓	97%	53%	31%	19.8%
2	Florida PanthersFLA 55-24-6	Atlantic	1604	+61	110	✓	97%	62%	30%	18.1%
3	New York RangersNYR 58-23-4	Metro	1595	+38	114	✓	99%	47%	25%	14.6%
4	Colorado AvalancheCOL 52-26-7	Central	1586	+12	107	✓	72%	44%	26%	11.4%
5	Edmonton OilersEDM 51-27-7	Pacific	1578	+9	104	✓	80%	48%	23%	9.6%
6	Boston BruinsBOS 49-21-15	Atlantic	1569	+2	109	✓	72%	27%	10%	5.5%
7	Dallas StarsDAL 52-23-9	Central	1585	+25	113	✓	29%	16%	10%	5.0%
8	Vancouver CanucksVAN 52-24-9	Pacific	1549	+51	109	✓	71%	32%	13%	4.4%
9	Winnipeg JetsWPG 53-26-6	Central	1570	+59	110	✓	28%	16%	9%	3.9%
10	Vegas Golden KnightsVEG 47-29-8	Pacific	1542	-22	98	✓	71%	24%	10%	3.4%
11	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 47-28-10	Atlantic	1554	-11	102	✓	28%	10%	3%	1.6%
12	Nashville PredatorsNSH 48-32-5	Central	1537	+46	99	✓	29%	12%	5%	1.5%
13	Los Angeles KingsLAK 45-29-11	Pacific	1530	-7	99	✓	20%	9%	3%	1.1%
14	Tampa Bay LightningTBL 45-31-9	Atlantic	1538	+15	98	✓	3%	1%	<1%	0.2%
15	New York IslandersNYI 40-30-16	Metro	1501	-10	94	✓	3%	<1%	<1%	0.1%
16	Washington CapitalsWSH 40-34-11	Metro	1476	+1	91	✓	1%	<1%	<1%	0.0%
17	Buffalo SabresBUF 39-37-6	Atlantic	1513	+8	84	—	—	—	—	—
18	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 38-32-12	Metro	1511	-14	88	—	—	—	—	—
19	Minnesota WildMIN 39-34-9	Central	1507	-19	87	—	—	—	—	—
20	Detroit Red WingsDET 41-32-9	Atlantic	1497	+23	91	—	—	—	—	—
21	St. Louis BluesSTL 43-33-6	Central	1495	+17	92	—	—	—	—	—
22	New Jersey DevilsNJD 38-39-5	Metro	1489	-66	81	—	—	—	—	—
23	Calgary FlamesCGY 38-39-5	Pacific	1486	-35	81	—	—	—	—	—
24	Ottawa SenatorsOTT 37-41-4	Atlantic	1484	-19	78	—	—	—	—	—
25	Arizona Utah CoyotesARI 36-41-5	Central	1464	+18	77	—	—	—	—	—
26	Seattle KrakenSEA 34-35-13	Pacific	1463	-49	81	—	—	—	—	—
27	Philadelphia FlyersPHI 38-33-11	Metro	1449	+11	87	—	—	—	—	—
28	Montreal CanadiensMTL 30-36-16	Atlantic	1417	-4	76	—	—	—	—	—
29	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 27-43-12	Metro	1413	-8	66	—	—	—	—	—
30	Anaheim DucksANA 27-50-5	Pacific	1379	-32	59	—	—	—	—	—
31	Chicago BlackhawksCHI 23-53-6	Central	1361	-59	52	—	—	—	—	—
32	San Jose SharksSJS 19-54-9	Pacific	1326	-77	47	—	—	—	—	—

As of:

Version History

v3.0 - current

Re-ran backtesting of model parameters with a bias towards the salary-cap era. This resulted in changes to several parameters, including increasing the K-factor from 6 to 8 and reducing home ice advantage from 50 to 42, which were found to improve predictive performance of the model at the game level. This in should improve the quality of the forecast, which is done via game-level monte carlo simulation.

v2.0

I added a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo. This differs from v1.0, which uses only last season's ending elo, with a small regression back to the mean. In this change, I mapped Vegas totals to elo ratings using a simple linear regression model, then I blended the v1 rating with the Vegas projected rating, at 65% Vegas-biased elo and 35% v1 elo. The most notable change is Boston going from first with a 20% cup chance, down to 4th at only 9%.

v1.0 - FiveThirtyEight's

This was an exact replica of FiveThirtyEight's NHL forecast.

What is this?

This is an elo forecast inspired by FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications as detailed in the version history above. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Why do it?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts this season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.