2023-24 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated March 03, 2024 at 21:20:09 PST.

This is an elo forecast inspired by FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications as detailed in the version history below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.
Based on 50,000 simulations
1
Florida Panthers
41-16-4
Atlantic1606+63114>99%75%49%31%19%
2
Edmonton Oilers
37-20-2
Pacific1585+1610699%65%39%22%11%
3
New York Rangers
40-17-4
Metro1577+2011199%70%37%18%10%
4
Carolina Hurricanes
36-19-6
Metro1580+310699%73%36%18%9%
5
Winnipeg Jets
39-16-5
Central1571+6011199%61%33%17%8%
6
Colorado Avalanche
37-20-5
Central1570-410498%53%28%15%7%
7
Toronto Maple Leafs
35-17-8
Atlantic1571+610599%53%26%13%6%
8
Dallas Stars
37-17-9
Central1564+410899%52%26%13%6%
9
Boston Bruins
35-13-14
Atlantic1555-1310899%47%20%9%4%
10
Vancouver Canucks
39-17-7
Pacific1544+4510899%52%22%9%4%
11
Los Angeles Kings
31-19-10
Pacific1537+110088%36%15%6%2%
12
Vegas Golden Knights
33-21-7
Pacific1534-309881%31%13%5%2%
13
Nashville Predators
35-25-2
Central1529+389670%25%10%4%1%
14
Tampa Bay Lightning
33-24-6
Atlantic1525+29577%21%8%3%1%
15
Detroit Red Wings
33-22-6
Atlantic1520+469681%21%8%2%1%
16
Calgary Flames
30-25-5
Pacific1529+99229%11%5%2%<1%
17
Pittsburgh Penguins
27-24-8
Metro1508-168822%7%2%<1%<1%
18
Philadelphia Flyers
32-23-7
Metro1490+529359%14%3%1%<1%
19
New York Islanders
26-20-14
Metro1485-279030%7%2%<1%<1%
20
New Jersey Devils
30-27-4
Metro1502-528613%4%1%<1%<1%
21
St. Louis Blues
31-26-3
Central1490+128914%4%1%<1%<1%
22
Minnesota Wild
29-27-6
Central1512-14887%2%1%<1%<1%
23
Seattle Kraken
26-23-11
Pacific1497-16889%2%1%<1%<1%
24
Buffalo Sabres
29-29-4
Atlantic1500-5833%<1%<1%<1%<1%
25
Washington Capitals
28-23-9
Metro1466-98612%2%<1%<1%<1%
26
Ottawa Senators
25-31-3
Atlantic1470-3376<1%<1%<1%
27
Arizona Coyotes
25-31-5
Central1440-675<1%<1%
28
Columbus Blue Jackets
20-30-10
Metro1415-769
29
Montreal Canadiens
23-28-10
Atlantic1407-1473<1%
30
Anaheim Ducks
22-36-3
Pacific1401-965
31
San Jose Sharks
15-39-6
Pacific1352-5153
32
Chicago Blackhawks
15-41-5
Central1348-7151
As of:

Version History

v3.0 - current

Re-ran backtesting of model parameters with a bias towards the salary-cap era. This resulted in changes to several parameters, which were found to improve predictive performance of the model at the game level. This in turn improved the quality of the forecast, which is done via game-level monte carlo simulation.

v2.0

I added a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo. This differs from v1.0, which uses only last season's ending elo, with a small regression back to the mean. In this change, I mapped Vegas totals to elo ratings using a simple linear regression model, then I blended the v1 rating with the Vegas projected rating, at 65% Vegas-biased elo and 35% v1 elo. The most notable change is Boston going from first with a 20% cup chance, down to 4th at only 9%.

v1.0 - FiveThirtyEight's

This was an exact replica of FiveThirtyEight's NHL forecast.

What is this?

This is an NHL Elo Forecast inspired by FiveThirtyEight's deprecated forecast. The methodology used is that described on the post linked at the top, with changes made as detailed in the version history above.

Why do it?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts this season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.