2024-2025 NHL Elo Ratings & Projections

Last updated Fri, Apr 25, 2025, 11:55 PM EDT.

Round 1 Series Win Probabilities
20%
vs
80%
WPG leads 2-1
36%
vs
64%
DAL leads 2-1
55%
vs
45%
MIN leads 2-1
18%
vs
82%
LAK leads 2-0
2%
vs
98%
TOR leads 3-0
83%
vs
17%
FLA leads 2-0
20%
vs
80%
WSH leads 2-1
22%
vs
78%
CAR leads 2-1

1
WPG
159820.0%
2
TOR
158619.4%
3
LAK
157211.6%
4
FLA
15618.8%
5
DAL
15667.6%
6
WSH
15406.5%
7
CAR
15456.1%
8
COL
15785.7%
9
VEG
15605.3%
10
EDM
15532.3%
11
TBL
15572.2%
12
STL
15431.8%
13
MIN
15121.5%
14
NJD
15030.7%
15
MTL
14880.4%
16
OTT
15120.2%
17
NYR
1513
18
UTA
1499
19
DET
1498
20
VAN
1497
21
CGY
1497
22
CBJ
1496
23
BUF
1482
24
SEA
1474
25
PIT
1465
26
NYI
1463
27
BOS
1460
28
NSH
1450
29
PHI
1438
30
Anaheim Ducks logo
ANA
1438
31
CHI
1392
32
SJS
1333
As of:

What is this?

This is an elo forecast based on FiveThirtyEight's deprecated NHL Elo model and forecast. You can read about how the original version works on FiveThirtyEight's website. Model credit to @ryanabest and @neil_paine, with modifications outlined below. This website is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight or ABC News.

Current Version

The current version of the projections builds on FiveThirtyEight's model, biasing parameters to the salary-cap era. We tune home-ice advantage from 50 to 42, and increase the K-factor from 6 to 8. We also add a Vegas totals bias to the teams' season starting elo, rather than relying solely on a regressed season-ending elo, which short-cuts learning any off-season movement.

How does it work?

Each team is given an elo score, which is effectively their strength relative to other teams. At the start of the eason, this score is a blend of their previous season's ending elo, regressed to the mean, and an implied elo derived from the Vegas season point total projections. Before each game, we compute the probability of each team winning based on their elo ratings and other factors like home ice advantage. After each game is played, we update the teams' scores based based on who won, by how much, who was originally expected to win, etc.

To simulate the season, we go game by game, randomly picking a winner of each game weighted on their pre-game probabilities. We then update their elo rating as described above as if they really played the game, and continue to the next game. We do this for the whole season (including playoffs) tens of thousands of times, recording how each team did in each full season simulation.

We then average their results across simulated seasons to get the probability of making the playoffs or winning the cup, etc., which are presented in the table above. For example, if the Edmonton Oilers won the cup 6,000 times in 50,000 simulations, they would show a 12% chance of winning the cup in the table above. If the Leafs won the cup 5,000 times, the table would show 10%, but we'd all know the true probability is still 0.

Is it accurate?

These projections have been shown to be exceptionally well-calibrated over the years when 538 was doing it, and last year when I did it. So across a season, they're quite reliable. When you factor in the simplicity of the modeling, the ROI on effort to results is quite frankly astounding. (As an aside, other projections websites go to mind-bending lengths incuding things like puck locations and player tracking, and achieve only marginally better results.)

However, there are shortfalls to the system, especially at the game level. It doesn't account for day-to-day changes like injuries, trades, suspensions, coaching changes, etc. When these things happen, it can take a few games for the elo score to capture the impact, and so any given game could be poorly calibrated in the short term. One way to think about this is if the Vegas money line is significantly different from the elo projection, it's not a value find but an indication that there's a significant factor the model doesn't know about.

How do I use this to gamble?

You don't. I'm just some random guy on the internet (see below) and this could go away at any time. It's made for entertainment and hockey obsession purposes only.

Why do this?

I'm a super fan of both hockey and elo ratings. So when I learned that FiveThirtyEight wasn't doing their forecasts last season, I shed a few tears. Ironically, a hockey injury gave me some extra time back in my week, which I used to build this.

Who made this?

I'm a software engineer, machine learning practioner and beer league hockey player. My day job is building software for Coastline, a driving education startup.